Which Indian business-cycle phase are we in?

Diagnosing the current phase requires you to check a few live indicators — the platform's India Macro Dashboard is the right starting point. Here is the framework to make that call yourself.

The Four-Phase Framework

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The Signals to Read Right Now

Check these four indicators on the dashboard:

1. Repo rate trajectory — The RBI hiked from 4% → 6.5% (2022–23), held through 2024, and began a gradual easing cycle in early 2025. A pivot to easing suggests the RBI believes the cycle is past its peak. ^[5]

2. CPI vs. the 4% target — If CPI is drifting toward or below 4%, the RBI has room to cut. That is a late-contraction / early-recovery signal. ^[5]

3. 10Y-2Y G-Sec spread — As of 2025, India's yield curve is relatively flat (~60–70 bps term premium). A flat curve signals late-cycle or early transition. ^[4]

4. GDP growth vs. the 6–7% potential — Growth above 7% = overheating risk; below 5% = contraction. ^[5]

Reading the Signals Together (as of 2025)

Putting the available data together:
- RBI has begun easing → past the tightening peak
- CPI has moderated toward the 4% target band
- Yield curve flat but not inverted
- GDP growth broadly near potential

This pattern is most consistent with late Phase 3 / early Phase 4 transition, moving toward recovery — but India's cycle is not fully synchronised with the global cycle because domestic consumption and government capex are the dominant growth drivers. ^[1]

Why This Matters for Your Portfolio

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Apply this →

Go to India Macro Dashboard → check the current repo rate, CPI print, and 10Y-2Y spread → map them against the four-phase table above. That is your own diagnosis, not a borrowed one.

For deciding whether to tilt your allocation in response, read the TAA vs SAA framework before acting. ^[2]